Thorax：宿主因素更能预测肺炎球菌肺炎死亡风险

Rationale 

Host and bacterial factors as well as different treatment regimens are likely to influence the outcome in patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia.

Objectives 

To estimate the relative contribution of host factors as well as bacterial factors and antibiotic treatment to mortality in bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia.

Methods 

A cohort study of 1580 adult patients with community-acquired bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia was conducted between 2007 and 2009 in Sweden. Data on host factors and initial antibiotic treatment were collected from patient records. Antibiotic resistance and serotype were determined for bacterial isolates. Logistic regression analyses were performed to assess risk factors for 30-day mortality.

Results 

Smoking, alcohol abuse, solid tumour, liver disease and renal disease attributed to 14.9%, 13.1%, 13.1%, 8.0% and 7.4% of the mortality, respectively. Age was the strongest predictor, and mortality increased exponentially from 1.3% in patients <45 years of age to 26.1% in patients aged ≥85 years. There was considerable confounding by host factors on the association between serotype and mortality. Increasing age, liver disease and serotype were associated with mortality in patients admitted to the ICU. Combined treatment with β-lactam antibiotics and macrolide/quinolone was associated with reduced mortality in patients in the ICU, although confounding could not be ruled out.

Conclusions 

Host factors appear to be more important than the specific serotype as determinants of mortality in patients with bacteraemic pneumococcal pneumonia. Several host factors were identified that contribute to mortality, which is important for prognosis and to guide targeted prevention strategies.